Gold prices have surged to Rs 92,500 per 10 grams in India and $3,180 per ounce internationally — new all-time highs — as the Iran-Israel-US conflict triggers the biggest flight to safety since the COVID pandemic. The yellow metal gained 5% in just three trading sessions, with jewelers and ETF investors driving unprecedented demand.
Triple Tailwind for Gold
1. War Premium
Gold’s 5,000-year track record as a war hedge is being validated again. Every major geopolitical crisis has produced a gold rally: Gulf War 1990 (+15%), 9/11 (+8%), Russia-Ukraine 2022 (+12%). The current crisis, with three nuclear-armed powers involved (US, Israel’s alleged arsenal, Iran’s program), carries the highest risk premium in decades.
2. Oil-Inflation-Gold Nexus
Crude oil at $98 will push global inflation higher. Higher inflation erodes the value of paper currencies, making gold more attractive. This is exactly the stagflationary environment (rising prices + slowing growth) where gold historically outperforms every other asset class.
3. Central Bank Buying Continues
China’s PBOC bought 10 tonnes of gold in February 2026 alone, continuing its 16-month buying streak. India’s RBI added 5 tonnes. Central banks view gold as a hedge against the weaponization of the dollar-based financial system — a concern amplified by current geopolitics.
Rs 1 Lakh Gold — When, Not If
At $3,300/oz and a rupee at 88-90, gold hits Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams. Given that both variables are trending in gold’s favor (higher dollar gold price + weaker rupee), this milestone could be reached within weeks if the conflict persists.
Should You Buy Gold Now?
If you have less than 10% portfolio in gold, YES — add on any 3-5% dip. Gold is not just speculation; it’s insurance against exactly this kind of scenario.
- Short-term traders: Book partial profits above Rs 93,000. War premiums can reverse quickly on ceasefire news
- Long-term investors: Accumulate via Gold ETF SIPs. The structural case (central bank buying, fiscal excess, de-dollarization) is intact regardless of war
- Avoid physical gold: Making charges eat into returns. Digital gold or ETFs are far more efficient